The Two Peaks of the US Housing Crisis

Is History Repeating Itself in the Housing Market?

For anyone who has tried to buy a home in the last few years, the feeling is all too familiar: soaring prices, fierce competition, and a gnawing anxiety that feels eerily reminiscent of the days leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. It's a question on many minds: Is the current housing market just as expensive, or even more so, than that infamous bubble?

A fascinating data analysis recently surfaced, attempting to answer that very question. A data enthusiast explored the “expensiveness” of housing across every US state from the year 2000, with projections leading into 2025. Instead of just looking at home prices, the analysis used a more insightful metric: the ratio of Median Home Value to Median Household Income. This simple ratio gives a much clearer picture of true affordability for the average person.

Uncovering the "Twin Peaks"

The resulting visualization revealed a stunning pattern, aptly dubbed the "twin peaks." For a majority of states, the timeline of housing unaffordability showed two distinct spikes. The first, as expected, occurred in the years just before the 2008 crash. The second, more recent peak, landed squarely in 2022.

This data confirms what many have felt in their wallets—that the recent market has reached a level of expensiveness that rivals, and in many cases exceeds, the pre-crash era. In fact, the analysis found that 26 states hit their all-time peak for housing costs in 2022.

A Tale of Two Crises

But the story isn’t the same everywhere. In a surprising twist, the data showed that 15 states, despite the recent surge, still fell short of their pre-2008 highs during the current cycle. This highlights the complex, regional nature of the US economy. While some areas are facing unprecedented affordability challenges, others haven't quite returned to the speculative fever pitch of the mid-2000s.

This powerful visualization does more than just present numbers; it tells a compelling story about economic cycles, regional disparities, and the enduring challenge of homeownership in America. It's a data-driven confirmation of a shared national anxiety, beautifully illustrating that while trends may be similar, the peaks and valleys of the housing market are experienced differently from one state to the next.